Torino – Lecce

Lecce are capable of taking points in Turin

Lecce hosted Genoa at the Via del Mare in the last round. Genoa took the lead through Osmajić in the 11th minute. Seventeen minutes later, Junior Messias doubled their advantage. Di Francesco’s side were clearly unhappy with that start, but they did not give up. Towards the end of the first half, Maleh reduced the deficit to one goal, and Stulić even equalised. The latter’s goal, however, was disallowed after VAR intervened. Lecce’s attempts to draw level in the second half came to nothing. A round earlier, Di Francesco’s side had suffered a heavy defeat to surprise package Frosinone. After a series of wins, Torino have lost two rounds in a row. Last Sunday, Torino faced Frosinone at the Benito Stirpe. The first half offered few chances and was perhaps memorable only for Antonio Raimondo’s spectacular attempt to score with an overhead kick. The second half, however, began with a goal. In the 48th minute, Ghedjemis put Frosinone ahead with a precise shot into the corner of Lucas Perri’s net. The Algerian could have scored a second almost immediately, but Abate’s side were saved only by some committed defending. Torino responded with uninspiring long-range efforts that posed no danger. Frosinone managed to score a second goal and secured a deserved victory. A round earlier, Torino had faced Como. The Turin side scored first but ultimately lost 1:3. The teams exchanged wins last season. At the Olimpico, the hosts beat Lecce 1:0, while the match at the Via del Mare finished 2:1 in favour of Di Francesco’s side. Torino have won only twice in the last five meetings between the teams. Only one of those victories came by more than one goal. There was also one draw and two wins for Lecce. According to statistical metrics, Torino have scored slightly more goals and earned slightly more points than expected. Lecce, by contrast, have fallen short. According to xG, Di Francesco’s side should have scored 3.6 more goals. At the same time, the team have earned slightly fewer points than their xPTS figure suggests. Lecce’s losing run should not continue. The Apulian side are hardly weaker than their current opponents. This match is quite likely to be a low-scoring draw. A handicap on Lecce, however, offers a simpler way to back that outcome.