Monza – Napoli

Napoli must win their match against Monza.

The most dramatic and spectacular match of the opening rounds was played last weekend by Napoli and Roma. The Partenopei hosted Roma at the Diego Armando Maradona on Saturday. A superb strike from Anguissa in the 28th minute put the hosts ahead. Toward the end of the first half, the Azzurri missed a golden opportunity to double their lead. However, it took McTominay just three minutes of the second half to score. Perhaps it was precisely this comfortable advantage that worked against Allegri’s side. The Romans not only reduced the deficit but also equalized in the 74th minute. McTominay scored again, but the Giallorossi snatched a draw in the final minute of regular time. A phenomenal match. Monza came close to producing the same scoreline, but their meeting with Torino ended in defeat. The Turin side were more active at the start of the match, and that pressure paid off toward the end of the first half. Thanks to a goal from Fitz-Jim, the Granata went into the break with the lead. Monza’s leading scorer, Varela, equalized two minutes after play resumed. Torino responded with goals from Belgali and Vlašić. Ivan Jurić’s side could only reduce the deficit to one goal just before the final whistle. In the previous round, Monza had thrashed Cagliari 4–0. To understand the context of the match, it is worth looking at some of the teams’ statistical metrics. Napoli are significantly underperforming their expected-goals tally. Statistically, the Azzurri should have scored five more goals. Notably, Allegri’s side are also underperforming in terms of expected points. This metric suggests that the Partenopei should have collected 5.34 more points than they currently have. In home matches, Monza have scored 2.66 more goals than their xG would suggest. Ivan Jurić’s side have also collected 2.2 more points than expected and have conceded two fewer goals than projected according to xGA. In the 2024/25 season, Napoli defeated the Brianzoli twice. At the U-Power Stadium, the match ended in a 0–1 victory, while at the Diego Armando Maradona, the hosts won 2–0. It is unlikely that the situation has changed significantly since then. Allegri’s side have not won in two rounds and are hardly eager to extend that run. Napoli are the natural favorites for this match.