Spain – Germany

Germany should not be considered an outsider in the home match against Spain

On Friday, 5 July, the Spanish national team will play against Germany. The first quarter-final is the most colourful poster. Two young national teams were among the three favourites before the play-offs. Germany has been somewhat disappointing in recent matches. Firstly, it didn't beat Switzerland (1-1). The second half was dominant, but Nagelsmann's team was expected to win confidently. Secondly, Bundestim could really have been beaten by Denmark. The key episode was offside when the opponents scored a goal. Otherwise, Germany risked being the losing side 30 minutes before the final whistle. At the same time, against Germany, past opponents have acted in a closed manner. There will definitely be no such scenario from Spain. "Red Fury" will try to play open football. This may help Nagelsmann's fast performers. Germans are very dangerous just in transitions. This was clearly seen in the game with Denmark, when the opponent went to take risks and denuded zones. Spain are unlikely to be able to avoid the opponent's quick attacks. "Red Fury" looks highly overrated. Unofficially, the team is considered the main favourite of the tournament just by the game. The statistics hint at total dominance: nine points in the group, a total difference over four matches of 9:1, and the only goal conceded was an auto-goal. At the same time, context is also important. The draw for the play-offs was very lucky. Georgia were clearly weaker, never once hitting the goalpost. In the group, Spain defeated Croatia, which was in a clear slump, and defeated Italy, which was failing. Without taking any credit, De la Fuente's team has yet to face the true favourites. This could be an unpleasant surprise. The two attacking national teams have a surprising penchant for games where there is a bet on no goals exchanged. Spain has had four such games out of their last six, while Germany had two 2-0 games at their home Euros. Prior to the tournament, it drew 0-0 against Ukraine in a friendly. Head-to-head encounters generally emphasise parity. Of the last four matches, there have been three 1-1 draws and a 6-0 rout at the hands of Red Fury, but that was in the Nations League and in 2020. Now it's a very different line-up and game. Interestingly, bookmakers for some reason do not make a footnote on the home factor. Still, Germany plays in front of its fans - an obvious advantage. The big question is how the youth of Spain will cope with the first serious pressure at the tournament. It is strange to consider Germany an underdog after three wins in four meetings. The team has no injuries and the attacking line is full of stars. Ta's defence will be back, Rüdiger is not injured. Neuer is in fighting form. This is a match of at least equal chances for the Bundestim.