Austria – Turkey

It hard to determine a favorite in the match between Austria and Turkey

On Tuesday, 2 July, the Austrian national team will play against Turkey in the final meeting of the Euro 1/8 finals. This is a clash between the first team from Group D and the second team from Group F. Austria sensationally beat France and the Netherlands. The team is one of the best in terms of pressing and total runs. Austria's attack is very successful in 2024, with nineteen goals in nine matches. The national team in the last ten meetings lost only to France. At the same time, it can not be said that there were no chances there either. In the game with the Netherlands Rangnick made a serious rotation, but the team looked very organised. The pressing also worked. We lost to the Netherlands by xG, but not globally. Austria has an obvious penchant for "over the top" games: the team has conceded in six consecutive meetings, and betting on goal exchanges has failed only once. This is the cost of a bold style of play with high pressing. Turkey came out of the second place in their group, but it is very difficult to understand the true level of the national team. In the first meeting Montella's team defeated Georgia by scoring three goals, but everything was much closer to a draw. Georgia created more than 2.00 xG chances. After that, Turkey didn't have a game against Portugal at all. Ridiculous auto-goal had a strong impact - defeat with the score 0:3. It is also difficult to assess the match with Czech Republic: the match was a penalty in the middle of the first half, and Turkey was satisfied with a draw. In other words, all the matches left a mixed impression. The obvious conclusion for Turkey is that the defence is very weak. The Turks managed to concede even in the majority. The national team has fourteen conceded goals in seven meetings. That is an average of two per match. In many ways, the statistics is further worsened by the game with Austria. In March, the national teams held a friendly meeting, which ended in disaster for Turkey - 1:6. It is hardly worth dwelling much on the result of that match. The scenario of the 1/8 finals should be different. Turkey got the odds around 5.00 for this match. Austria looks overvalued. It is far from a fact that Rangnick's system will work under such pressure. Austria will be led by a big favourite for the first time in the tournament, there is no special advantage in class. It is the technical equipment in attack that speaks in favour of Turkey. There is a trump card in the person of Hakan Çalhanoglu. The player is one of the best performers of standard positions. Plus, we can expect a breakthrough from two young stars Güler and Yıldız. They are just capable of overcoming the Austrian pressing. The chances of the rivals look almost equal, despite the last face-to-face encounter.