Panama – Qatar

Qatar do not look like a clear outsiders against Panama

The play-off matches at the CONCACAF Gold Cup start on Sunday 09 July. Panama won their group by a wide margin. The team avoided any difficulties. First, they managed to beat Costa Rica, then earned three points against outsiders Martinique. Panama's main advantage is experience; the backbone of the players has not changed for several years. Seven men in the national team have played fifty or more matches for the national team. A very high average age. One of the oldest teams in all of world football. On the downside, lack of reinforcements from young players. Lack of any big rising stars. Importantly, Panama were obviously lucky in the group stage with their opponents. Costa Rica are having the worst time of the 21st century. Martinique only made it to the tournament after the play-offs and were clear outsiders, and the meeting with El Salvador no longer made tournament sense. Panama managed to test the reserve players but conceded two goals. Ahead of the play-offs, the winners of their group are somewhat overrated. Qatar made a great noise in the last CONCACAF Gold Cup. The Asian champions were one step away from the final, showing great attacking football. The Qataris made the play-offs for the second consecutive time, but the situation is radically different. The Asian team has looked worse than its opponents in every match. It all started with a sensational defeat against Haiti, then the Qataris could not beat Honduras. But in the game with Mexico, there was a statistical miracle. Qatar created 0.06 XG chances, in fact, their only approach on goal. Mexico took 24 shots, six of them into the box. Objectively deserved a solid win, but luck turned away from the favourite. The miracles for Qatar did not end there. The parallel encounter between Honduras and Haiti ended in such a way that the Asians were better on extra points. Qatar do not use many of the players involved in the World Cup. For example, there are no three key defenders, two midfielders and two main strikers. In fact, there are reserves and young players, reinforced by a few experienced veterans. This has an impact on the quality of the football. The bookmakers are marking Panama as the clear favourite. Such status raises questions. In the group stage, Panama have certainly not been invincible opponents. Against a packed defence, the favourites could be in big trouble. There is no significant difference in individual skill between the two teams. Qatar are capable of drying out the game as much as possible.