Strasbourg – Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano will reach the Conference League final.

The first meeting between Rayo Vallecano and Strasbourg a week ago unsurprisingly ended in a hard-fought contest. The visitors from France from the opening minutes did not hide their intention to slow the game down in Madrid and take the decision of the two-legged tie back to their home stadium. On one hand, such a strategy is quite understandable. On the other hand, a 0-1 defeat for Strasbourg can be considered a stroke of luck. Throughout the match in Spain, O'Neill's charges did not create a single real goalscoring moment, did not test Rayo Vallecano's goalkeeper at all, and earned only one corner. This time, even the fairly criticized xG figure for Strasbourg was 0.20, underscoring the French side's inertia. In turn, Rayo Vallecano, for the past few months, were very good. The Madrid club's performance in every single match in the Conference League and La Liga deserves high marks. Undoubtedly, in France Rayo Vallecano will not be playing at full strength, as they did in the previous round in Greece after their 3-0 home win over AEK. The price of losing concentration so close to the final could be very high. And the scoreline now is far more precarious. The bookmakers have made the home team the favorites for the upcoming match, offering odds of 1.89 on their victory. Strasbourg, which can be regarded as Chelsea's almost farm club, has entered a rather unpleasant run of matches, resembling its older partner. If finishing mid-table in Ligue 1 had long seemed inevitable for the team, then their exit in the semi-finals of the Coupe de France at the hands of Nice was a truly painful outcome. In the last month alone Strasbourg has lost five of seven official matches across three competitions. Rayo Vallecano's form in 2026 is comparable to that of the top five La Liga clubs. However, the Madrid club let too much slip in the first half of the season, so its current eleventh place in the national championship looks ambivalent. In the previous rounds of the Conference League, Rayo Vallecano lost the away legs, but resolved all matters in the first legs. Now, however, the visitors do not have that luxury, so they will pursue a repeat semifinal success with full responsibility.