Arsenal – Atletico Madrid

Arsenal has a slightly better chance of reaching the final.

Only three matches remain until the end of yet another Champions League campaign. However, the first legs indicate that neither of the return fixtures will be a walk in the park. In the first leg of the England–Spain showdown, the contest was roughly evenly matched, but that match took place in Madrid, and its 1-1 final score favors Arsenal. Although neither Mikel Arteta, nor Declan Rice, nor the other Gunners expressed satisfaction after this draw. On the contrary, the aforementioned leaders of the London side flooded their interviews with negativity about the refereeing in the first leg. Moreover, both goals were scored from penalties, and in one case Danny Makkelie initially awarded a penalty and then overturned it against Atletico. Otherwise, the first match unfolded livelier than football observers expected, and the opponents created a fair number of goal-scoring chances. In London, there is no expectation of parity between the sides. It is worth recalling that earlier in the current Champions League campaign Arsenal and Atlético Madrid had already met in the English capital, and the Madrid side were beaten 4-0. Bookmakers have identified the home side as the favorites for the upcoming tie, offering odds of 1.64 on their victory. After the Madrid match, Arsenal did not chase other priorities and at home crushed Fulham 3-0. The London club is in a desperate bid for the Premier League title, which it itself had sharpened with a March and April slump. The thing is, the Gunners have never questioned their commitment to the Champions League. Even in the overall phase of the current Champions League, the Gunners won all eight matches, continuing to win even after receiving assurances of finishing in the top eight. Atlético Madrid have won only two of their last thirteen matches against English sides and have lost in four of their last away games against Premier League teams. That statistic reflects the real standing of the Madrid club in European football. It would seem that this time not even the managerial genius Diego Simeone is able to haul the Colchoneros to the Champions League final.