Uruguay – Spain

Spain will end Uruguay's agony at the World Cup.

A two-time World Cup champion, Uruguay, which has held that title since 1950, was heading to yet another World Cup filled with optimism. In the South American qualifiers, the team performed well, finishing in a tight group of teams vying for the North American spots behind Argentina and Ecuador. The draw for the World Cup group stage further reinforced Marcelo Bielsa's and his players' calm. It would seem what problems could players from Real Madrid, Manchester United, Tottenham, and other European clubs face from Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde? And at this point Uruguay faced such difficulties that they were on the verge of a humiliating elimination in the group stage. The cause of this situation was draws with the aforementioned Asian and African teams. In both matches the Uruguayans dominated but conceded a total of three goals and could not win. Two points before the final round is a result that requires a win over Spain to finish in one of the top two spots. Most likely, a draw with the Red Fury and a final third place would also allow Uruguay to play in the playoffs, since under these circumstances the South Americans would have three points and a zero goal difference. Some teams from other groups, having already played their third matches and finishing third in their pools, have a negative goal difference. Spain's national team, before the end of the group stage, has four points, which puts them first in Group N. A draw, with a 99% probability, would allow the Iberian side to finish in the leading position. The worst-case scenario for the Red Fury is a defeat by Uruguay and Cape Verde's victory in the parallel match against Saudi Arabia, which would place Spain third in the group but would still allow them to advance to the playoffs with four points. In other words, the Spanish team, having unleashed its true power in the second-round match, can perform without undue pressure for the result. At the same time, finishing first will pit them against a weak opponent in the Round of 16, so Uruguay should not count on leniency from the Spaniards.