Espanyol – Mallorca

Mallorca is a worthy opponent for Espanyol

On Monday, 15 September, Espanyol and Mallorca will conclude the fourth round of the Spanish championship. The Catalans started very successfully and are in the top 5. Mallorca currently has only one point but there are objective reasons for their minor slump. Espanyol surprised with a convincing start after only securing their place in La Liga in the final rounds last year. Despite a very tough schedule, the Catalans have collected seven points – a significant surprise. In the first round, the presumed underdog won at home against Atletico, then scored two goals in San Sebastian and managed to draw, and in the third round, somewhat fortuitously, they broke Mallorca's resistance at home. So far, luck is certainly playing a part: the club has scored more than expected and conceded fewer goals than they should have based on advanced statistics. In the match against Mallorca, there were moments when the ball miraculously did not find its way into Marco Dmitrovich’s net. In particular, during one of their attacks, the opponents hit the crossbar and failed to score from two metres away. At the same time, Espanyol’s breakthroughs in the early rounds are no coincidence. The club has already shown decent results in friendly matches. For example, they defeated Wolfsburg, Union, and did not lose to Newcastle. Mallorca's schedule has turned out to be even tougher. The club has already faced both Real and Barcelona. The matches were not disastrous, but the giants still won. However, a very commendable scenario unfolded in Madrid: the "islanders" led after a goal from Vedat Muriqi and kept their chances for a draw until the final minutes, suffering only a narrow defeat. Mallorca has not made any global changes in tactics. They are still a team focused on defence. The scheme with five defenders is still in operation. Muriqi is a key element in the system. The towering forward holds onto the ball and begins simple attacks for the islanders. Last season, Espanyol and Mallorca exchanged narrow home wins with a score of 2:1. The potential of the teams is roughly equal. Perhaps the Catalans are slightly stronger now, but evaluating Mallorca based on their matches against Real and Barcelona is not objective. Another interesting trend in their head-to-head matches is the exchange of goals: only once in six matches has the bet not passed. Moreover, there has never been a significant advantage for anyone over the past five years: victories have only come with a one-goal difference. Currently, bookmakers are clearly overestimating Espanyol after their successful start. It will be very uncomfortable to play against Mallorca. They were fortunate to take three points against Osasuna. Furthermore, the guests are very motivated – they urgently need to climb out of the bottom of the table. There appears to be a game without an advantage for the hosts.