Baltika – Dynamo Makhachkala

The Baltic is highly overrated.

On Sunday, October 5th, Baltika will play at home against Dynamo Makhachkala. The Kaliningrad team suffered their first defeat only in the 10th round and remains among the top six teams in the league. Dynamo Makhachkala is also performing better than expected – so far they are avoiding even the relegation play-off zone. Baltika has long been experiencing a certain decline. The team is heavily overestimated after a successful start. Under the guidance of Andrei Talalaev, they managed to win consecutively against Sochi and Akron, but then experienced a downturn. They have gone three consecutive matches without a win in the Russian Championship. For instance, they drew 0:0 at home against Rostov. Currently, Baltika is showing an obvious low trend – the club has become one of the most defensive in the Russian Championship. The Kaliningrad team has had only two matches with a total score exceeding. Before the 11th round match, the team has a significant loss: main central defender Kevin Andrade will not play – he was sent off in the match against CSKA. Now Andrei Talalaev needs to involve one of the reserves in defence. Dynamo Makhachkala has transformed into a typical home club. Under the guidance of Khasanbi Bidzhiev, almost all their points have been earned at home. However, they have struggled away: one draw and a goal difference of 1:9. At the same time, Makhachkala continues to have a dreadful trend in terms of goals scored – nine out of ten matches have total goals under. This means that in the 11th round, two of the league's most cautious teams will play against each other. Dynamo justified its reputation in the last round – they completely shut down the match against Sochi. The match turned out to be the most boring of the round: the hosts only hit the crossbar once – that was the main moment. The Sochi team created almost nothing, although they do not lack talent compared to Dynamo. This is a kind of alarming sign for Baltika. Dynamo is capable of playing very organised defence. The Kaliningrad team scored a lot in the early rounds due to set pieces. Makhachkalans could tackle that weapon – the club almost never fails in defence. The only major failure was in the match against Zenit – 0:4. Excluding that match, they have conceded seven goals in nine rounds. Bookmakers are surprising with their odds – they are giving nearly 5.00 on the visitors. That is definitely too much – there is no significant class difference between the clubs. Baltika has scored zero goals in the last three matches of the RPL. It seems questionable to expect a breakthrough against an organised opponent. Most likely, the unpleasant surprises may be for the hosts – they won’t be able to rely on the optimal combination in defence. It looks like at least a match with a slight advantage for Baltika. The visitors will try to grind out another goalless draw. Baltika, on the other hand, will need to press and play as the dominant side – an unfamiliar scenario.