Lazio – Napoli

Napoli have decent chances of an away win

With little trouble, Napoli secured a victory in the last round. The Azzurri faced Cremonese away and from the start began to prove their superiority. Already in the 13th minute, a goal by Hojlund put Conte's men ahead. The Partenopei did not ease the pressure and by the end of the first half increased their lead. The second half saw Napoli continue their attacks. The Azzurri could easily have increased their advantage, but settled for a two-goal win. Interestingly, with this result the team won its third consecutive match. Prior to that, the Neapolitans had become Italian Super Cup holders. In the semifinal Conte's troops beat Milan, in the final Bologna. Lazio extended their unbeaten run to five matches. It began with a 1-0 victory in the Coppa Italia over Milan, knocking the Devils out of the tournament. Then came a 1-1 draw with Bologna, a narrow win over Parma, and a share of the points with Cremonese. In the last round the Biancocelesti faced Udinese. The opponents took a long time to unlock each other's defense and did so only in the 80th minute. An own goal by Soule put the Romans ahead, but late in the match the Friulians fairly levelled. Interestingly, Lazio is not Napoli's easiest opponent. Last season the teams met three times. In the Coppa Italia and in the first leg the Romans won twice. The second leg ended in a productive 2-2 draw. The Biancocelesti lead many home-match statistical metrics. Thus, according to the xG metric, the Eagles scored 2.25 goals more than they should have, and would have earned 4.31 more points according to xPTS. It’s also worth noting that the deficit in goals relative to xGA stands at 4.22. Napoli won five of nine away matches. The Partenopei have a 5.3-goal underachievement according to the xG metric. If we look only at matches at the Olimpico, Lazio have won just one of the last five. Twice the win went Napoli's way, and the clubs shared points on as many occasions. At this stage Lazio lags behind their opponents in terms of quality of play. The match with Cremonese showed that Napoli is in excellent form, even despite some squad issues. Conte's charges will be close to a victory at the Olimpico.