Orenburg – Krasnodar

Krasnodar must beat the outsider

On Saturday, 17 May Orenburg will play at home against Krasnodar. A key meeting for the two teams. The hosts will go out if they don't win. And the Bulls are very likely to lose the lead if they make a misfire. Bookmakers don't consider the leader to be an unqualified favourite against the 15th team in the league. Krasnodar plays very poorly against top clubs in 2025. The match against CSKA is a new failure. The southerners acted passively and deservedly lost. Now the margin from Zenit is reduced to one point. The positive news is the absence of injuries and a relatively easy calendar. Before the championship title we need to beat Orenburg and Dinamo in front of their fans. Now Murad Musayev can count on an optimal squad. Another issue is that the leaders are a bit down, and there is almost no rotation. Krasnodar have radical difficulties with squad depth. The coach attracts Olusegun and Kobnan, as the other options are honoured veterans Gazinsky and Smolov. It often turns out that Krasnodar have no one to strengthen the game against top clubs, but in matches against mid-table and outsiders, the efforts of the leaders are enough. Orenburg is almost the main progress in the spring, but too much was missed in the first part of the season. The outsider tried to make a spectacular comeback: managed to win three meetings in the spring. It seems that the fatal misfire happened just in the last match. Orenburg did not beat Khimki at home. Now the gap from Akhmat is five points, but there is an important nuance: Khimki can fly out not on a sporting principle due to lack of money. In this regard, even from the fifteenth place can be sent to the clash. This gives motivation to Orenburg, which is three points ahead of Fakel. Interestingly, it was in Orenburg that the southerners had a hard time getting points. For example, in November 2022 the club managed to settle for 1:5. But in the first round, the leader had no problems at all, but then Orenburg was also undone. The outsider received four unanswered goals in his gates. Bookmakers are now offering odds of 1.75 on Krasnodar. As if the leader is underestimated. After all, the southerners are on their way to a historic championship, and the opponents are a clear outsider, albeit with a quality game. It is important that Krasnodar will be relatively more comfortable than with a typical club from the second half of the table. Still, Orenburg don't field a traditional bus and leave space. Besides, it makes no sense for the hosts to play for a draw - they need to take risks. This opens up more options for Krasnodar. It's very likely that the leader will beat the opponent on class. It makes sense to expect a productive first half. Krasnodar will not drag it out.