Peru – Paraguay

Paraguay can snatch points from Peru in crucial match

The Peruvian side needs a win to guarantee a place in the knockout rounds. The standings are now in such a position that everything is in the hands of the Peruvians. Ricardo Gareca's side will definitely qualify for the intercontinental play-offs, if they win. The question is that the team's chances are very much overestimated. First of all, Peru's quality of play is higher than it should have been during the tournament. In the away game against Colombia, for example, the Incas got blatantly unlucky. The team defended throughout the match and scored in the first attack in the 90th minute. Second, Paraguay's style is very uncomfortable for Peru. The White and Red look quality when they go on the defensive and use counterattacks. There is no selection of performers for positional attacks. For example, in a friendly match they failed to beat Panama, who also closed down. The third fact against the hosts is the underestimation of Paraguay. The team have failed in their current qualification. There are significant problems with performance. Paraguay have always been renowned for their defence. In qualifying, Paraguay scored 12 goals in 17 games. Ecuador, meanwhile, suffered a 3-1 defeat in their last meeting. In other words, the figures were 9 goals in 16 meetings. This is the worst performance in the tournament even now. Outsiders Venezuela and Bolivia scored more. At the same time, Paraguay were struggling in almost all matches. Took points from Colombia at home and away, did not lose to Argentina. The last two head-to-head games against Peru have been statistically anomalous. At the America's Cup, the teams put on a 3-3 show. Prior to that, they played out 2-2 in qualifying. Peru do not have a global class advantage over their rivals. Emotionally, it will be even easier for the visitors. The Peruvians are under immense pressure. The bookmakers are predicting a higher odds of 7.00 for the visitors. That is obviously too high a bet, taking into account the roughly equal class of the opponents. The question of motivation is important, but the result of the meeting with Ecuador speaks for the bet on Paraguay. The team travels to Peru in high spirits. The home side will go into defence, if they score. They are certainly not going to develop their advantage in attack. It's going to be a nervous game.