Osasuna – Atletico Madrid

Atletico should beat a tired Osasuna

On Sunday 29 January, Atletico will play away against Osasuna. The teams are on equal footing, having played a gruelling game each in the Copa del Rey. The mood, however, is very different. Atletico were winning for most of the meeting with Real, but lost. In doing so, the club continued the worst season of the Diego Simeone era. Atlético have already been left without European competitions, finishing last in the Champions League. Now it has lost any chance of winning the trophy. Until the end of the season, the only thing left to settle for is the championship, where the ceiling is third place. At the moment, Atletico are very far from feeling safe in the context of Champions League contention. At the same time, there has been progress in terms of play compared to the first half of the season. The team has taken its points in the league. Against Barcelona and Real Madrid they had decent matches, close to parity. There are no serious problems with the squad. At the moment, Simeone can count on almost all the key players. The signing of Memphis Depay should be a great help to diversify the attack. The Dutchman has already made his debut for the club. In contrast, Osasuna are having a historic campaign in two tournaments. The Pamplona side could theoretically even contend for a place in the European competitions, although such an outcome is unlikely. The club have already collected 28 points after eighteen rounds. This is virtually a guarantee of retaining their place in La Liga next year. Osasuna can be blamed for some very dull football. At the same time, it produces results. The club's performance in the second leg is near-perfect. Defensively, it is in the top ten. At the same time, it concedes considerably less than it should according to advanced statistics. At the moment, the difference between the actual number of goals and what is predicted by the goal danger index is four goals. Osasuna have continued the trend of total less since last year. In 2023, there has not been a single game with more goals. Importantly, Jagoba Arrasate's strategy works in meetings with top clubs. Osasuna survived against Athletic, knocked out King's Cup side Betis. Against the Madrid club, it is logical to predict a small number of goals. One case in which Atletico will definitely have more possession of the ball. Simeone's side, despite fatigue, are far more motivated. The depth factor of the squad is important. Osasuna have played two tournaments without major changes. Simeone will be able to add freshness in the second half. It is possible that the same Depay could be the deciding factor.